2020 UK General Election Forecast

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Lord Whitcroft

I am audaciously attempting to forecast the next General Election in the UK. By using current opinion polls and historical trends for each party.

Effectively, similar positions faced by the mainstream parties are repeats of scenarios they have already faced historically, by analysing their result in the subsequent election and the recent opinion poll errors and turnout bias, we will hopefully be left with an accurate forecast.

The forecast is view-able here.

Forecast popular vote (31/01/16)

Conservative: 41.3% (+4.5%)
Labour: 28.3% (-2.2%)
UKIP: 11.7% (-1.0%)
Lib Dems: 7.3% (-0.6%)
SNP: 4.5% (-0.2%)
Green: 3.2% (-0.6%)

Forecast seats (31/01/16)

Conservative: 353 (+23)
Labour: 210 (-22)
SNP: 53 (-3)
Lib Dems: 10 (+2)
DUP: 9 (+1)
Sinn Fein: 4 (NC)
Plaid Cymru: 3 (NC)
UUP: 2 (NC)
SDLP: 2 (1)
UKIP: 1 (NC)
Green:
 1 (NC)
Others: 2 (NC)

2020GEMap

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