Look beyond Labour’s poll leads of the last few months to the Thursdays during that period and you will discover that at almost every local authority by election held during that time, Labour has lost vote share in comparison with the last time a seat was contested.
Representative samples of voters are telling pollsters that they will vote Labour.
Other voters, any overlap between the two groups whilst possible is highly improbable, are not putting crosses for Labour in increasing numbers on ballots of a Thursday.
They are for the Liberal Democrats, however.
One should not read too much into council by elections, but one might have expected some signs of a trend of increasing vote shares for Labour by now.
The Liberal Democrats are they claim, and seemingly with some credibility, winning over some One Nation Conservatives; elements of the 25% of the Tory Party’s 2015 vote estimated to have voted Remain in 2016; a few Tories disillusioned with Johnson’s Hard Brexit and small business people. The latter in England must think Labour and the Conservatives have gone stark staring mad with their joint commitment to Hard Brexit.
Dear Starmerites, the Liberal Democrats are winning from the centre, like we did at the 1997 General Election.
How many reading this blog remember the mocking of Jeremy Corbyn when he claimed winning a seat on Ramsgate Town Council at a by election was a seismic event?
And how many of those who mocked Corbyn back then were hailing Labour winning a seat on Lewes Town Council at a by election held on Thursday 3rd February this year?
Yes, that is Rachel Reeves, the Shadow Chancellor.
A town council is the equivalent of a parish council.
On Thursday 10th February, Labour failed to field a candidate for the Hailsham South (Wealden) council by election.
Lewes is the county town of East Sussex.
Hailsham is in East Sussex.
Britain Elects does not Tweet town or parish council by election results.